An estimated 1.25 million people worldwide and 56,000 in South Africa succumbed to tuberculosis (TB) in 2023, according to recent WHO figures. These alarming statistics place TB above COVID-19 as the leading infectious disease killer globally. Marcus Low analyzes these findings, examining TB’s persistent toll in South Africa and the WHO’s goals to reduce both TB incidence and mortality.
TB Burden in South Africa: Key Insights from WHO and Thembisa Estimates
The WHO’s 2023 World TB Report estimates that around 270,000 people contracted TB in South Africa last year, including 13,000 with drug-resistant strains. Encouragingly, South Africa’s TB incidence is declining, with rates reduced by 57% since 2015. However, the goal of cutting TB deaths by 75% by 2025 remains unmet, with only a 16% reduction achieved.
Key Figures:
Total Global TB Cases (2023): 10.8 million, with 1.25 million deaths
South Africa TB Incidence: 270,000 new cases in 2023
Drug-Resistant TB Cases in SA: 13,000 in 2023
High-Burden Countries: South Africa remains on all three WHO lists for TB, HIV-associated TB, and drug-resistant TB.
In addition to WHO data, South Africa’s Thembisa model offers alternative TB estimates. While the WHO reported 270,000 new TB cases (all ages), Thembisa’s adult estimate for 2022–23 was significantly higher at 326,000 cases. Variations between the two highlight data uncertainties, with Thembisa noting that approximately 516,000 individuals had active TB in 2022, illustrating the persistent prevalence of the disease.
A Persistent Health Crisis
Though mortality rates among people living with HIV have declined, TB deaths among HIV-negative populations remain steady. South Africa’s TB-related deaths in adults were estimated at 60,000 by Thembisa for 2022, surpassing WHO’s combined estimate of 56,000 deaths (adults and children) in 2023.
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, emphasized the urgent need for nations to uphold commitments to expand TB prevention, detection, and treatment. The staggering number of TB-related deaths, despite available treatment tools, underlines a need for enhanced public health efforts globally.