South Africa has made real progress against tuberculosis (TB). However, it will fall well short of its 2030 targets. Low TB testing rates are the single biggest reason, according to new modelling published in the journal Global Health Action.
The study projects TB incidence falling 46% by 2030 from a 2015 baseline. This falls short of the World Health Organisation (WHO) End TB target of an 80% reduction. TB mortality is projected to drop 54%, versus the 90% target. Even the optimistic ends of the researchers' uncertainty ranges fall short of both goals. Therefore, South Africa is unlikely to meet them on time.